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Matt Edwards

Swindon Town among worst under-performers for 'expected points' in League Two... but does this teach us anything?

According to the Opta formula, Town really ought to be sitting comfortably in 10th place in the division, with 14 points (13.8 to be precise – yes, you can...

10.10.24, 17:40 Updated 05.06.25, 20:09 9 Minute Read

Sam Morshead

Sam Morshead

To those with an aversion to xG, look away now. To the rest, you are invited into the land of the theoretical.

This week, Opta produced their ‘expected points’ table for League Two, and it makes for interesting reading.

While appreciating xG and xPoints models do not convince everyone, and that ultimately it is how many wins a team achieves in real life that determines league position, the Opta data does have a handful of benefits.

Firstly, it’s a talking point. And who in the media doesn’t love a talking point.

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Sam Morshead

Sam Morshead is the founder and editor of The Moonraker. He was previously the chief sports writer at the Swindon Advertiser, head of sport at Total Swindon, and has been a Swindon Town fan since 1994.

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